注釋：
〔1〕https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/five-challenges-could-trigger-trump-comeback/620221/，美國學者Samuel Popkin對此說得更直接，一切端視拜登治下的美國經濟表現和走向，參閱https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/05/12/trump-party-cheney-defeat-proves-trumps-hold-gop-experts-say/5036774001/
〔2〕https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/trump-winning-2024-real-election-nightmare/620368/
〔3〕https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-lost-2020-election-biden-could-he-win-2024-ncna1247805
〔4〕https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/573040-poll-trump-dominates-2024-republican-primary-field
〔5〕https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/07/politics/donald-trump-2024/index.html 與 https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/07/trump-campaign-operation-2024-510013
〔6〕https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/09/12/most-republicans-want-trump-to-be-president-again-but-are-split-on-if-hell-actually-win-poll-finds
〔7〕https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-beats-joe-biden-2024-election-poll-1626328
〔8〕在2021年5月時，有一份民調（Quinnipiac University national poll）顯示，66%的受訪共和黨支持者表示希望能看到2024由特朗普代表共和黨出戰，另有30%表示不希望看到這樣的狀況，參閱https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/27/politics/donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/index.html。
〔9〕參閱李海默：《蕭條謝幕之後，特朗普風潮會捲土重來嗎》，澎湃新聞，2021-02-02。
〔10〕共和黨內當然是有人明確反對特朗普的，比如，在2021年1月，就有10名國會共和黨人明確投票支持彈劾特朗普。
〔11〕https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/13/gop-2024-hopefuls-511617
〔12〕https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/opinion/trump-2024-election.html
〔13〕https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pelosi-predicts-whats-his-name-would-fail-2024-white-house-run-2021-09-16/
〔14〕https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/demoting-cheney-gop-holds-trump-risk-further-alienating-others-n1266571
〔15〕https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/10/06/two-thirds-of-republicans-want-trump-to-retain-major-political-role-44-want-him-to-run-again-in-2024/
〔16〕https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/07/us/politics/trump-2024-republicans.html
〔17〕參閱《華盛頓郵報》相關報道。
〔18〕https://finance.yahoo.com/video/trump-2024-prediction-most-people-120000932.html
〔19〕參閱李海默：《“金權政治範式的民粹主義”：美國共和黨的當代統治策略》，刊於 澎湃新聞，2020-09-04。
〔20〕https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/donald-trump-running-president-again-2024-maybe-n1280740
〔21〕https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/donald-trump-odds-to-win-2024-presidential-election-improve-again-2443132/
〔22〕而且兩人都是已經公開明確表示對參與競逐2024總統大選感興趣（Publicly expressed interest）。特朗普以前的政治顧問Jason Miller則認為，特朗普將代表共和黨出戰2024，不過對戰的不是拜登，而是賀錦麗（Kamala Harris）或現任加州州長加文·紐森，參閱https://www.newsweek.com/trump-will-ultimately-run-2024-not-against-biden-former-adviser-predicts-1636978
〔23〕https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/576090-the-biden-harris-train-wreck-may-have-its-savior-2024-gop-nominee-donald
〔24〕參閱《華盛頓郵報》相關報道。
〔25〕一個特別值得參考的數據是，2020年美國總統大選時，89%的特朗普支持者認為如果拜登勝選，他們將非常擔憂，並認為拜登勝選會不斷傷害到美國的整體利益，參閱https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/13/america-is-exceptional-in-the-nature-of-its-political-divide/；亦可參閱李海默：《美國政治極化現象：三個不同維度的觀察》，刊於香港中文大學主辦《二十一世紀》第184期。
〔26〕此事直接關涉到特朗普在公眾印象中的形象問題。
〔27〕參閱https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/571553-allies-sees-rising-prospect-of-trump-2024-white-house-bid
〔28〕Owens JE. The Trump Party: Republican in Name Only. Political Insight. 2021;12(2):32-35.
〔29〕Michael Espinoza (2021) Donald Trump's Impact on the Republican Party, Policy Studies, DOI: 10.1080/01442872.2021.1950667
〔30〕參閱https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election
〔31〕參閱李海默接受《第一財經日報》專訪，刊於《特朗普的推特及其8730萬粉絲》，《第一財經日報》，2020-12-11，A11版及《不斷翻炒熱點話題是特朗普的推特“技術”》，《第一財經日報》，2020-12-11，A11版。
〔32〕https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-asks-florida-judge-force-twitter-restart-his-account-bloomberg-news-2021-10-02/
〔33〕https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/facebook-says-donald-trump-to-remain-banned-from-platform-for-2-years-effective-from-jan-7.html
〔34〕https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/575236-gop-megadonor-says-he-wouldnt-back-trump-2024 |
