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中評智庫:略論特朗普捲土重來概率

http://www.CRNTT.com   2022-01-23 00:03:14  


 
  注釋:

  〔1〕https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/five-challenges-could-trigger-trump-comeback/620221/,美國學者Samuel Popkin對此說得更直接,一切端視拜登治下的美國經濟表現和走向,參閱https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/05/12/trump-party-cheney-defeat-proves-trumps-hold-gop-experts-say/5036774001/

  〔2〕https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/trump-winning-2024-real-election-nightmare/620368/

  〔3〕https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-lost-2020-election-biden-could-he-win-2024-ncna1247805

  〔4〕https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/573040-poll-trump-dominates-2024-republican-primary-field

  〔5〕https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/07/politics/donald-trump-2024/index.html 與 https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/07/trump-campaign-operation-2024-510013

  〔6〕https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/09/12/most-republicans-want-trump-to-be-president-again-but-are-split-on-if-hell-actually-win-poll-finds

  〔7〕https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-beats-joe-biden-2024-election-poll-1626328

  〔8〕在2021年5月時,有一份民調(Quinnipiac University national poll)顯示,66%的受訪共和黨支持者表示希望能看到2024由特朗普代表共和黨出戰,另有30%表示不希望看到這樣的狀況,參閱https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/27/politics/donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/index.html。

  〔9〕參閱李海默:《蕭條謝幕之後,特朗普風潮會捲土重來嗎》,澎湃新聞,2021-02-02。

  〔10〕共和黨內當然是有人明確反對特朗普的,比如,在2021年1月,就有10名國會共和黨人明確投票支持彈劾特朗普。

  〔11〕https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/13/gop-2024-hopefuls-511617

  〔12〕https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/opinion/trump-2024-election.html

  〔13〕https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pelosi-predicts-whats-his-name-would-fail-2024-white-house-run-2021-09-16/

  〔14〕https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/demoting-cheney-gop-holds-trump-risk-further-alienating-others-n1266571

  〔15〕https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/10/06/two-thirds-of-republicans-want-trump-to-retain-major-political-role-44-want-him-to-run-again-in-2024/

  〔16〕https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/07/us/politics/trump-2024-republicans.html

  〔17〕參閱《華盛頓郵報》相關報道。

  〔18〕https://finance.yahoo.com/video/trump-2024-prediction-most-people-120000932.html

  〔19〕參閱李海默:《“金權政治範式的民粹主義”:美國共和黨的當代統治策略》,刊於 澎湃新聞,2020-09-04。

  〔20〕https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/donald-trump-running-president-again-2024-maybe-n1280740

  〔21〕https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/donald-trump-odds-to-win-2024-presidential-election-improve-again-2443132/

  〔22〕而且兩人都是已經公開明確表示對參與競逐2024總統大選感興趣(Publicly expressed interest)。特朗普以前的政治顧問Jason Miller則認為,特朗普將代表共和黨出戰2024,不過對戰的不是拜登,而是賀錦麗(Kamala Harris)或現任加州州長加文·紐森,參閱https://www.newsweek.com/trump-will-ultimately-run-2024-not-against-biden-former-adviser-predicts-1636978

  〔23〕https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/576090-the-biden-harris-train-wreck-may-have-its-savior-2024-gop-nominee-donald

  〔24〕參閱《華盛頓郵報》相關報道。

  〔25〕一個特別值得參考的數據是,2020年美國總統大選時,89%的特朗普支持者認為如果拜登勝選,他們將非常擔憂,並認為拜登勝選會不斷傷害到美國的整體利益,參閱https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/13/america-is-exceptional-in-the-nature-of-its-political-divide/;亦可參閱李海默:《美國政治極化現象:三個不同維度的觀察》,刊於香港中文大學主辦《二十一世紀》第184期。

  〔26〕此事直接關涉到特朗普在公眾印象中的形象問題。

  〔27〕參閱https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/571553-allies-sees-rising-prospect-of-trump-2024-white-house-bid

  〔28〕Owens JE. The Trump Party: Republican in Name Only. Political Insight. 2021;12(2):32-35.

  〔29〕Michael Espinoza (2021) Donald Trump's Impact on the Republican Party, Policy Studies, DOI: 10.1080/01442872.2021.1950667

  〔30〕參閱https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election

  〔31〕參閱李海默接受《第一財經日報》專訪,刊於《特朗普的推特及其8730萬粉絲》,《第一財經日報》,2020-12-11,A11版及《不斷翻炒熱點話題是特朗普的推特“技術”》,《第一財經日報》,2020-12-11,A11版。

  〔32〕https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-asks-florida-judge-force-twitter-restart-his-account-bloomberg-news-2021-10-02/ 

  〔33〕https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/facebook-says-donald-trump-to-remain-banned-from-platform-for-2-years-effective-from-jan-7.html

  〔34〕https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/575236-gop-megadonor-says-he-wouldnt-back-trump-2024


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